Analysts Warn Oil Prices Will Stop Falling Because US Drillers Can’t Meet Demand

Analysts do not expect the current slump in oil prices to last much longer despite U.S. crude sinking on Thursday. During the five sessions on that day crude futures dropped in price from $72 to $67 per barrel. International benchmark Brent crude also tumbled $6 per barrel from it’s high of $80.50. However, it has since picked itself back up to $78 a barrel.
Speaking to CNBC, Tamar Essner, the director of energy and utilities at Nasdaq explained that he believes the drop is temporary. He said that the fundamental picture is still strong but the market is a bit dislocated right now.
Indeed, the market is notably risk averse at the moment. This appears to have been stoked by fears that Trump is in the process of starting trade wars as well as by concerns over the integrity of the European Union. These factors have caused the U.S. dollar to strengthen, which in turn makes commodities sold in dollars more expensive to holders of other currencies.
Oil prices were already lowering in the wake of the news that OPEC, Russia and a number of other oil producing nations may wind down their pact to cap production. This pledge has been in place for 17 months now and has been consistently undermined by U.S. shale. Nevertheless, the agreement got rid of a global glut of oil and restabilised the market. However, due to the recent unrest in Venezuela and renewed sanctions by the U.S. against Iran, the policy is now coming under review.
Venezuela’s oil output has dropped a staggering 500,000 barrels a day this year so far. It is also likely that this number will grow or even double by the end of the year. Meanwhile, U.S. drillers are unlikely to be able to ramp up production by 1.2 million barrels a day. Therefore, it is unlikely that the price of oil will continue to plunge in the way it has done recently.
Further to this, the number of American drillers trained in the art of freeing crude oil from shale rock formations is dwindling. The pipeline capacity in Western Texas is also limited. Combined with these factors is the fact that drillers are more invested in providing returns for investors than plowing capital into new production.
Clearly, upping output will be a challenge and on top of all that many drillers have already promised to deliver oil to customers at a price far below where oil sits in the market today.
"They're sort of locked in, and when you look at the slope of the futures curve, it's going downward. That makes it harder to hedge production at attractive prices for further-out years," Essner said.
It is also predicted that were oil prices set to drop below $70 a barrel, OPEC would intervene. While anything below $70 would be too low, anything above $80 would be too high. Therefore, strategies must be developed to keep the price exactly where OPEC wants it.
With regards to the physical market, where oil barrels are bought and sold in order to satisfy actual demand, things look stable. This means that there is no urgency compelling OPEC to drop its production cap. At least until the situations with Venezuela and Iran have been properly assessed.

Trump Demands Immediate Action to Prevent Closure of Coal and Nuclear Power Plants

The President of the United States has repeatedly made it clear that his priority for the energy sector is to keep coal and nuclear power plants up and running. Trump has ordered ‘immediate steps’ to prevent the closure of coal and nuclear power plants. The administration is now reviewing a plan to step in and manipulate the US electricity markets in order to support generators that are unprofitable.

A number of power industry groups have criticised the decision, saying that there is no need to interfere with the market and that doing so would inevitably raise prices for consumers.

The White House spoke on the topic, explaining that the impending retirement of coal and nuclear plants will have a serious impact on the resilience of the power grid. It said that coal and nuclear formed a critical part of the energy mix of the US.

This came in the wake of a leaked memo, which outlined arguments in favour of supporting coal and nuclear plants. It stated that an increase in gas-fired plants and renewable energy would jeopardise the resilience and security of the country’s energy supply.

The memo continued to highlight the importance of promoting national defence and would persuade the energy department to exercise its powers under the Defense Production Act of 1950. The powers would allow the department to delay retirements of fuel-secure electric generation resources.

For two years, grid operators would have to purchase their power for a specified list of coal and nuclear plants, created by the government. This would have the effect of keeping the plants in business.

This proposal has sparked outrage among activist groups representing renewable energy and natural gas. It was also criticised by PJM, the operator of the largest power grid in the country.

Thanks to the rise in shale gas and the decreasing costs of solar and wind, gas-fired plants and renewable energy sources have dominated investment in power generation in the US. Coal plants are finding it hard to compete with these modern and more sustainable energy sources.

Despite Trump’s pledge to reignite the coal industry, there has been little success. There are over 2,000 more employees in the sector now, since November 2016, but the industry is far from safe. In 2017, coal-fired plants provided 30% of US electricity. This year they are expected to supply 29%, showing that Trump’s plan to increase coal supply has not yet come to fruition.

Furthermore, planned closures of coal-fired plants will reach their peak this year, since 2015. The energy secretary, Rick Perry, put forward a plan last year to intervene in electricity markets to prop up coal and nuclear plants. However, this notion was rejected by the FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission).

The statement released from the White House shows Trump telling Perry to prepare for immediate action to prevent the loss of these resources. But, the plans have not gone down well, with several high-up officials noting that the proposals are going to cost more for consumers and businesses alike.

Experts have said that there is no current threat to system reliability and therefore no justification for government intervention in the electricity markets. If the government did intervene and compel customers to exclusively purchase power from specified companies, the damage to the market would be severe and costly. 

The Top 8 Energy Stories For 2018: Are Cities, States And Companies More Consequential Than Trump?

The world energy news continues to be dominated by Donald Trump. His doubters have hesitated to speak out as there is certainly something to said for going over the nation’s regulatory regime and reconsidering its configuration. However, critics still stand by the fact that Trump’s primary initiative is to undo Obama’s progress and undermine the science that underpins the research relating to climate change.

Fortunately, cities and states are taking matters into their own hands and are backed by American enterprise. Hopefully, their actions will outlast those of the president.

1. The Trump Organisation looks like it is going to pay out millions of dollars towards the clean up of a polluted site. The site was overseen by Donald Jr. and is known as Titan Atlas Manufacturing. The industrial site began in 2010 and failed two years later. This shows the president’s attitude towards the link between environment and business. If there is money to be made then environmental concerns are secondary.

2. In January 2017, the president signed an order to launch the Keystone XL Pipeline into action. The project has been on standby since 2008 and there were doubts about how many permanent jobs the pipeline would create. The drop in the price of oil also caused speculation as to the economics of the project, given that it was to cost in excess of $7 billion.

3. In July OFAC fined Exxon Mobil $2 million for violating sanctions on Russia. The breach was considered a reckless disregard for the sanctions, which barred U.S. entities from dealing financially with Igor Sechin, CEO of Rosneft, a Russian state-owner oil company.

4. Scott Pruitt, an EPA administrator, announced on Halloween that scientists who receive research grants from the EPA will no longer have a seat on the agency’s board. This means that hundreds of independent scientists will no longer be able to sit on the board but it will not stop scientists from private enterprise from doing so. Critics have blasted the move saying it is a blatant purging of independent scientists who may conflict with corporate interests.

5. Trump sent ripples through the world when he decided to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement, making the U.S. the only country in that world that is not participating. The aim of the pact was to keep temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius. Trump’s reasoning is flawed. He argued that he cannot create jobs and build an economy if he has to worry about a healthy environment. However, the U.S. economy has flourished recently whilst making great environment strides and renewable energy technologies are creating jobs.

6. Trump also ditched the Clean Power Plan and is attempting to resurrect the coal industry. However, market forces are proving stronger than the plan to roll back the proposed emission cuts. CO2 emissions were 18% less than in 2005 according to the EIA.

7. California has been busy creating and implementing a strategy to reduce carbon emissions by 40% by 2030 from 1990 levels. The move is in direct contrast with Trump’s position. By 2050 the state hopes to have reduced emissions by 80% and it believes that this initiative will create jobs.

8. Cities and states are certainly accelerating the low-carbon trend but it is the corporate world that is making things happen. Companies are listening to customers and investors and adopting technologies that will reduce emissions. Over 365 businesses have signed a letter asking Trump to go back to the Paris climate and Clean Power Plan.

Exam Dates and Fees for the Global Energy Certification

Have you decided to gain an extra qualification and expand your CV before you enter the job market? If the answer to this is yes then congratulations, you have made a very wise choice. Nowadays, the job market is more competitive than ever so standing out is vital – especially if you want to bag your dream career straight out of university.

The Global Energy Certification (GEC) is an online qualification created by the energy experts at NRG Expert. The carefully crafted course is designed to give you a comprehensive overview of the global energy market and is a great way to boost your knowledge of the industry. Once you have completed the course, you will be able to add the designation to your CV and show potential employers that you mean business.

Interested to know more about the GEC and how it works? Read on and find out all about the course’s exam dates and fees.

When Do I Take the GEC Exam?

Once you sign up for the course, you will have to wait a minimum of six weeks before you are able to take the exam. This is because the creators of the course feel that this is the least amount of time needed to be able to learn all of the material and have a good chance of passing the exam. Once this period of time has finished, you will be able to take the exam on the 10^th of any month. This means you need to have registered for the course by the 1^st of the previous month. So, if you want to take the exam on May 10^th, you will need to have registered for the course no later than April 1^st.

Once you register, you have 12 months to take the exam, which is two hours long and can be completed online from the comfort of your own home. The exam is laid out as a multiple choice test and will assess your knowledge of all the modules you have studied as part of the GEC. If you are unable to take the exam within 12 months you will need to contact NRG Expert so that arrangements can be made for you to take the exam at a later date.

How Much Will the GEC Cost?

The GEC costs £330, which is payable as a one-off payment when you submit your application. This cost covers the application process as well as your materials and the exam. Take note that only 200 students can register worldwide each quarter – this protects the integrity of the course. Once you have been accepted onto the course, you will be given online access to all of the materials you need to complete the exam.

If you are unsuccessful on your first attempt taking the exam, you can take the exam again at a cost of £175. You will also be charged this amount if you fail to take the exam within 12 months, unless you contact NRG Expert prior to the expiry date of your exam period. If you contact NRG Expert they are usually more than happy to make alternative arrangements for you at no extra cost. You will also be entitled to a full refund if you pay for the course and then change your mind, provided that you have not yet downloaded the course materials. 

Gas Firms Lobby EU into Committing to ‘Clean’ Gas Projects

Despite rising concerns about fossil fuels and a global push towards cleaner energy, the EU is currently at risk of continuing its dependency of fossil fuel for another 50 years. This risk has come from lobbying done by the gas industry for a new infrastructure.
The Corporate Europe Observatory claims that a number of gas firms poured over £88 million into their efforts to lobby EU decision makes last year. These funds were spent employing over a thousand professional lobbyists to back their campaign which promotes gas as a ‘bridge fuel’ that is clean and capable of assisting the European transition over to renewables.
Over the last three years, this lobbying has given gas firms the chance to sit down with top dogs of the EU’s climate and energy departments. The Corporate Europe Observatory claims that there has been over 460 of these meetings.
The Observatory goes on to explain that as a result of these meetings, the EU and its member states have encouraged a range of new gas infrastructure projects, which have been identified as controversial. These projects include the Euro-Caspian Mega-Pipeline and the Franco-Spanish MidCat Pipeline.
Belén Balanyá, the Climate Policy Campaigner at the Corporate Europe Observatory is sceptical of the claim made by the gas lobbyists with regards to gas being a clean source of energy. She said: “As a result of intense industry lobbying, the EU Commission has swallowed the gas lobby’s false claim that their fuel is a ‘clean’ complement to renewables and is now planning a new generation of pipelines and other gas infrastructure on this basis.”

What are oil prices?

Oil, it provides gasoline for our cars, diesel for our trucks, and other materials we use every day for energy and manufacturing. It is also no surprise to many that the oil price is a very often-discussed topic. Whether oil is below $50 a barrel, or over $100, the cost of oil determines what we pay for everyday routines.

You or I can’t just go to the store and buy a barrel of oil. Oil producers on the other hand also don’t just put a price tag on their oil and hope a buyer comes along either. Oil is often traded at exchanges. These exchanges bring the buyers and sellers together and this mechanism of supply and demand is what will set the price at that exchange.

The exchange acts as an auction and will sell what the producers are offering at the price the bidders are willing to pay for oil at that moment. It could very well be that the producer doesn’t want to sell at the prices being offered because it cost them more to produce the oil, so they’d be taking a loss and decide not to sell. Often when this is the case, producers will store oil until the price is right.

On the other hand, when the price is high, many producers will want to sell their oil, and the buyers might not be willing to pay that price, because they can get the oil cheaper from another location and ship it to where they need it to be. In this case they won’t buy, and the producers will start offering lower prices to the exchange where the buyers can buy.

What ends up happening is a finely tuned balance between the buyers and the sellers all looking to have the black gold change hands. On the world market, this is what determines the price of oil, and you or I don’t have any say in it; but we can definitely feel it in our pockets. 

European Transmission Network Collaboration

Through the ENTSO-E, the European NetworkOf Transmission System Operators, 43 Transmission system operators are represented in a single organisation. ENTSO-E is tasked and given legal mandates by the EU’s Third Legislative Package for the Internal Energy Market to further liberalise the electricity markets in Europe to allow for greater competition and better use of the scale of networks to deliver reliable supplies to European consumers of Electricity.

The direct objectives of ENTSO-E comprise of setting up the internal energy market, and implementing the EU’s ambitious goals of greenhouse gas reductions in which electricity generation plays a major part. Allowing for renewables to be integrated into the grid requires a lot of planning and coordination, and is most efficient in large-scale networks.

The 43 current members of ENTSO-E paint the picture of how fragmented electricity transmission in Europe is, despite the common goal of creating the world’s largest electricity market. ENTSO-E was set up to facilitate the dialogue and to work together towards common standards and objectives.

Transparancy is a key pillar within the association, and members are required by law to provide ENTSO-E with information related to generation, load, transmission, and outages through a common platform. Not only does this knowledge help with the functioning of the network; it allows for collaboration between parties outside of their networks and presents learning opportunities for all stakeholders.

As there is no true direct competition among TSOs, and each is tasked with the management of a fixed network, this collaborative space and the cooperation with one another has led to one of the most reliable and well connected grid systems in the world.

As Europe’s interconnectedness continues to grow, so too will the tasks of ENTSO-E relaying feedback and ensuring oversight of the world’s largest transmission networks.